The Future of Course Records: Part 2

In 2012, I first wrote about the future of ultramarathon course records. Just nine years later several of my predictions came true, including breaking 22:30 at Hardrock, sub 14:30 at Western States, and a sub 5:30 at the JFK 50. At the time, I had in mind the names of runners who I thought could break these records, and while some did, they were ultimately lowered more by someone else. Many of the current records, if mentioned a decade ago, would have been shrugged off as silly impossible notions. However, here we are and in another decade, I believe these times will continue to drop, even more so if lucrative prize money and incentives continue to draw faster talent. And trust me, much faster talent is out there, it just needs the proper financial motivation to venture into ultras. Currently, few would debate that Jim Walmsley is the best all around ultrarunner in the US, and yet his marathon personal best is a 2:15. Maybe on a good day and faster course, Jim runs a 2:13, which is certainly blazing fast, until you consider that recently 40 Japanese runners broke 2:10....all on in the same race on the same day. If you factor in the global running community, you literally have hundreds of runners who are faster marathoners than Jim, which means they mostly all have the potential to break his course records and others. The key word here is potential, which you will see a lot. No, not every 2:10, or even 2:05, marathoner is capable of running fast over 50-100+ miles, or on technical mountain terrain, but it's a great starting point for lowering those times. The reality is all our super fast ultra legends and course records, on an international scale, aren't as great as we thought. Mathematically, if someone can run 5 minutes faster than you for 26.2 miles, then over double the distance, with relatively similar pacing and training, they should be able to double that time gap to 10 minutes. In essence, a 2:10 marathoner has the potential to run 10 minutes faster than Mr. Walmsley over 52.4 miles, or about 9.5 minutes over 50 miles. That means all those sub 2:10 marathoners have the potential of lowering the 50 mile world record of 4:50 to the very minimum 4:41:30. That figure drops closer to 4:30, when you figure in the potential for sub 2:05 marathoners. Now, while this is all cute daydreaming, I do believe if you put the money out there, maybe in the $100,000+ range, or $1M just for fun conversation, I see EVERY ultra record getting destroyed. So, here are my new predictions for what the fastest marathoners on earth have the potential to do if they specifically trained for their ultra course and distance for, let's say, a year, the financial incentive was there, and weather conditions are ideal. I say Western States, in a cool year like 2012, would see times around 13:30. The JFK 50 would be sub 5 hours, the 100 mile world record could go under 10 hours, 20 hours for Hardrock, 5:45 for 100k, and 4:25 for 50 miles, and sub 2:30 for 50k. So, while these will likely never happen because of lack of money, I do think in the real world, within the next decade, we'll see a 13:45 at Western States, sub 5:15 at JFK, a sub 6 hour 100k.

Hampton 24 Hour Run for Cancer

A bit late on this, but here's my quick recap from the Hampton 24 Hour Run for Cancer. The 2020 event was postponed to November, but I opted to run a smaller race that day because vaccines hadn't rolled out and my parents are high risk. But, alas, April 2021 things were looking brighter and with a fully vaccinated family I decided to attend my 4th Hampton 24 hour.

Although certainly not back to our old normal, this race was the most normal feeling, thus far, in the pandemic. While we still had temperature checks, a staggered wave start, and masks were still worn, for the first time in a long time there were hugs and hand shakes. Having only run several times in the previous two months, there was absolutely no distance goals set for the day, other than to collect my 112th ultra distance. My starting wave began at 7:35am and I was content to run the first 15 miles as a long workout. It was my first run over 4 miles since running Holiday Lake ten weeks earlier. I then made it a point to catch up with a few old friends of mine and clicked off the hours and miles.

As the day carried on, the cool spring rain came, and also some very sore legs and feet. The lack of running is apparent to me every day, but after 41 miles and ten hours, my body wasn't having any more of it, and I was more than content with that. As in person running events gradually start coming back, for me it will be more about celebrating the people that makes the running community what it is, and the fact that we are finally together again doing what we love.

The Difference a Year Makes

Yesterday was Easter Sunday for my family. It's both easy and hard to believe it's been over a year now since the pandemic started. However, although we are still far from our "old normal" we are in a drastically better place, covid wise, than we were at this point last year. Easter of last year covid-19 had just started appearing in the state of Virginia and everything, for the most part, was in complete lockdown. I drove down from Charlottesville, brought my own food, and a lawn chair to socially distance from my entire family. Everything felt so fragile as I methodically sanitized every surface in my vehicle and made sure my parents had their appropriate stock pile of impossible to find hand sanitizer and cleaning wipes. We sat in my parent's front yard, six feet apart, and tried our best to make a typical annual family gathering feel as normal as possible. We did an easter egg hunt for my nephew as my very pregnant sister watched from a distance, but even such a benign activity carried some degree of constant stress. Were the plastic eggs clean? Was my nephew getting too close to my dad? Was the basket sanitized? Nothing could just be a moment of simple unencumbered joy. In our separate little pods, we talked, we ate, and then a few hours later said our goodbyes. No handshakes, no hugs, and certainly no kisses. Just an exchange of "I love you's"....from at least six feet away.

This year, Easter looked a lot different, and we had a new member of the family there as well, my 11 month old niece. It was a drastically different picture, all four grandparents, fully vaccinated, gathered indoors to enjoy an Easter brunch together. We spent the morning playing with the kids, catching up, spending time in the sun, and finding those magical Easter eggs. After such a crazy 2020, this was the first holiday that truly felt normal. I don't think any of us took it for granted, and I suspect we will be equally as grateful for the time spent together for future gatherings. I hope the rest of the world lives in the moment and is able to reflect back on the gift of in person interaction, though like many things, I suspect some will return to taking it for granted. For now, I am just happy that our family time together looks like this.

Covid-19 Antibody Test Results

Seven months ago I experienced what felt like 36 hours of mild flu like symptoms, for which I later tested positive for covid-19. Given all the chaotic information/misinformation out there, I wasn't 100% sure that I actually had covid, though most signs pointed to yes. So, I decided the best way to confirm all this was to take an antibody test. Of course, even then, I had heard antibodies may be gone within as little as three months, so testing negative would keep things fairly inconclusive. At my appointment my lab technician had asked me about my covid experience, and believe it or not, she claimed that most likely I just had the regular flu (due to the mild symptoms), and "they" created a false positive result. I had no idea why the lab tech was telling me this, but it added to the numerous doubts I have had about literally everything surrounding this pandemic, and I am by no means a conspiracy theorist. As such, the lab tech said she wouldn't be suprised if I didn't have antibodies and it wouldn't be the first time a patient that tested positive for covid, also tested negative for antibodies. Seriously? Anyway, we did a simple blood draw and I was told my results would be ready within 48 hours. And here they are....

Well, well, well. After seven months, look who still has covid antibodies....I guess that confirms I definitely had covid last year, and that I my circumstances and results were not a product of a rigged testing system. At least, not my results. Interestingly, recovered covid patients are widely being told their antibodies will be gone after 3 months, apparently, so they choose to get vaccinated. I will likely still get my vaccine, long after everyone else does, but I urge those recovered to get antibody tests so we can learn the true numbers. I really don't understand why antibody testing, which was free with my health coverage, is not something being suggested to people. Anyway, in five months I plan to get another test done to see if I still have antibodies one year post covid. Despite my immunity, for the greater peace of mind, I will still mask up, disinfect, socially distance, and choose safer social options. It's the least I can do for others. As always, be safe everyone. We're getting through this!

Holiday Lake 50k 2021 - Ice, Ice, Baby

Some of my fondest ultra memories aren't when the weather and running conditions are the best, but when they are the worst. While it can certainly be pleasant to breeze through a race on a sunny 60 degree day, something about grunting through challenging race conditions always made an ultra feel just a little more ultra. It felt old school. And surprisingly, I had fun. Maybe it's the same reason a good beer tastes so much better after a 50 miler, than a 5k is the fact that we did so much more to earn that quenched thirst. Holiday Lake 2021, covid edition, was no exception. There was freezing rain nearly the entire time, my body was glittered with chunks of ice from my head to my feet, the trails were muddy (understatement of the year), and some of the more exposed wind blown parts of the course were close to unrunnable as the entire surface had become a single sheet of ice. While that sounds terrible, there was a beauty in it. The trees, adorned in ice, glistened and bowed like acknowledging the royal family. The forests were a mix of the greys and brown of the trees, leaves, and mud, along with the white of winter. Every now and then you'd hear the crackle of a branch collapsing under the weight of the ice and crashing to the ground. It was a reminder of why I had spent so much of the past two decades out in nature, and out on trails like these on days like this. I woke up at 2:30am. It was the earliest I can recall for anything in a very long time. It took almost two hours to cautiously drive 78 miles to the race from Richmond, though the roads turned out to be mostly in good shape, aside from a few back roads closer to the race. The race itself was much smaller than anticipated, thanks to the forcast changing the minds of almost half the registered entrants. My 6:34am starting wave only had a dozen or so runners. The rest of the day was VERY socially distanced with moments when I couldn't see another human in front of me, or behind. I was slow, walked way too much, and plodded along as much as expected from someone who only runs 10 miles per week tops. But, I kept moving. The cold is a great motivator for relentless forward progress, especially during the moments when you can't feel your feet, hands, or face. My finish time was my slowest Holiday Lake ever, and nearly the same time as my 50 mile PR, but all things considered in these most unique times, I was just happy to be at an organized, non virtual running event. I do miss the jovial banter and miles of story telling and catching up with old friends, but hopefully, the time for that is on a not too far off horizon. Lastly, a special thank you for all the volunteers who spents hours in the freezing cold to support us. Last weekend I was on the flip side as the volunteer, and I can tell you, in inclimate weather, it's always tougher on the volunteers.

Holiday Lake 2021 - Ultra number 111. I have now surpassed over 10,000 km of exclusively ultra race mileage and have run at least one ultra for 18 straight years.