The First 138,336. My Sister's first marathon.

(As promised. Stride for stride for 26.2 miles. From start to finish. 138,336 feet)


In June of this past year my sister Elisa joined a marathon training team in Richmond, VA. Her goal, after sveral years of runnings 5ks and 10ks, was to complete the Richmond Marathon. Yes, a marathon. The dream distance for almost all runners, my sister among them.

Five months of training later I joined my sister and her marathon training team for a 20 mile run, which happened to be the longest of their program. We finished the run in about 3:40 with a total running time of 3:21. It was just under a ten minute mile pace, and my sister said she felt like she had a lot in the tank at the finish. A few months before she had mentioned wanting to finish in under 5 hours, and ultimately started knocking her time goals down to possibly a 4:30 on a really good day. However, after her strong showing on the 20 miler, I suggested that my sister might actually be able to run a ten minute mile for the entire marathon, which would bring her to a time of 4:22. Moreso, I believed she had held back a little to run with her training team, and thus secretly I believed she could break 4:20.

So it began. On the brisk 36 degree morning of November 10, 2012, myself, my sister, and 6,000 other runners cluttered the interesection of 8th and Broad St in downtown Richmond. The song Gangdamstyle blaired from the speakers, breaking a little pre-race tension in the process, and soon we were following the masses and running the first feet of my sister's first marathon. The primary goal for the day was to simply finish the marathon, then break 4:30, and then shoot for the "elite" goal of breaking 4:20 if possible.

The early miles went just as planned, and though the pace was a bit faster than the ten minute miles my sister had been training at, we were moving smooth. We cruised the early flat sections at a 9:30 pace, and eventually dropping down to a 9:15 aided by the downhills leading to the James River. We hit the 10 mark in 57:49. My sister and I were joined by the pleasant company of running veteran Carter Wiecking, and her presence definitely helped keep our pace efficient, as well as providing some much needed conversation. The river front was gorgeous and before we knew it we were passing through the 10 mile point, and then through the half in 2:02:23. My sister had just run about six minutes faster than planned for the first half of the marathon, and I was a little worried that we went out too fast. Carter, however, continued to run well, so we let her go so she could pursue breaking her marathon PR of 4:14. Carter crushed it, and finished with a huge personal best of 4:01.

Meanwhile, as in most marathons, my sister started feeling punishing effects of the miles during the scenic Lee bridge crossing. This is around mile 17 of the marathon, and where the race really begins. I told my sister that "This is where you prove you are stronger than everyone else. If you see someone walking, you keep running. You trained harder, and you can keep going." The encouragement/coaching had fleeting effects, but ultimately she would need short walks breaks. Although her marathon training program was very good, my sister had become acostomed to being allowed to stop and walk at their food/aid checkpoints every 4 to 5 miles. In the marathon, the clock keeps running, and so you must as well.

We arrived at mile 20 in 3:12:37. Nine minutes faster than her 20 mile training run three weeks earlier, and without pausing the clock at aid stations. Miles 18-22 were tough on Elisa. Cary St to the Richmond Diamond were peppered with short walk breaks and stretching. I kept reminding her that this is all part of the marathon experience and it is what everyone goes through. I said "It's not about how well you can run when you feel good. It's about how fast you can keep moving when you want to quit." The last four miles of the Richmond marathon are fairly flat, so I encouraged my sister to keep going and the finish would be there soon. I knew from miles 22 to 26 that Elisa was putting everything she had into, and she even said "I have nothing left right now. I just want to be done". I replied "Good. It means you are giving it your all."

As we made several of the final turns down to the finish I reminded my sister "You are about to become a marathon! You will be a marathoner for the rest of your life from this point forward. You got here on your own. I'm so proud of you." Though it seemed like forever from Elisa's point of view we finally made the last turn down to Browns Island. We could see and hear the thousands of spectators eagerly awaiting. About a hundred feet from the finish, by chance, I glanced over to the right and wouldn't you know it? Of the thousands of people lining the street, I spotted our mom and dad who were able to watch Elisa and I finish together. I nudged my sister and said "Look! It's mom and dad. We're all here." With that final note we sprinted the final feet and through the finish.

She did it! My sister Elisa freaking did it! She was sore, tired, and hurting, but she kept moving forward. My sister was now a marathoner and the newest member of the rare society of long distance runners.

Oh, and her finish time? Remember that "elite" goal of breaking 4:20. Yeah, she finished in 4:19:57. Three seconds under. Bad ass. What a red letter day for the Bailey and Seldon family. Hello world. Let me introduce you to Eliza Bailey Seldon. The MARATHONER!

(Proud brother with inspiring little sister)

Ultra Bar Fight

After a few indepth and deeper posts, I thought it'd be nice to return to a funny topic. What ultrarunners would you want on your side during a bar fight? It's a completely random, and completely stupid topic, but that's why I chose it.

First off, here are some folks I wouldn't pick. Ultrarunning tends to lend itself to a more peaceful and thoughtful group of athletes, and thus many of the top runners would more than likely try to talk things out during a bar fight rather than actually throw punches. Also, long distance runners tend to be on the skinny, less muscular side, which also mitigates the intimidation factor.

I wouldn't want on my side:

Tony Krupicka- his rail thin 150 lb frame can fly up mountains, but I doubt they can throw down in a bar fight. Tony is also quite philisophical, and would reason out all the theories how man has evolved beyond the need for physical combat. Plus, he looks more like Tom Hanks from Castaway, than a fighter.

Scott Jurek- Scott might be 6'2" and 170 lbs, but he's just too peaceful and meditative to hurt a fly. That's what we love about him, but I don't think I'd want him backing me up in a dark alley.

Kilian Jornet- 5'7", 120lbs. Nuff said. He could outrun any bar thug on the planet, but a Vo2 max of 92 doesn't translate into punching power.

Hal Koerner- Hal has actually gotten fairly lean and ripped the last couple of years. He's also bigger than you'd think at 6'0" 170 lbs. Though he's packed on some muscle, he's still far too laid back and nice to want to get involved in something as silly as a fight. He'd rather sip a beer and watch.

Matt Carpenter- The king of high altitude can outrun anyone in the world to the top of Pike's Peak, but if Pike's Peak had a bar, his 120 lb frame wouldn't stand a chance. Too bad you can't punch with your lungs, or else Matt would be a beast.

I could probably list hundreds of other runners who I wouldn't want on my side in a bar fight, but then again they are runners. When will they ever need to fight? Again, most ultrarunners would rather enjoy the pristine outdoors, than go to a bar and brawl it out.

That brings me to who I'd want ON my side in a bar fight. Note, being on this list does not mean I think these runners are violent, or enjoy fighting. They are merely folks I think could throw down if they had to. I'm pretty sure most are just liked the runners described above and are quite happy with never having to fight. Ever.

David Goggins- No doubt that this Navy Seal is as badass as they get. The former powerlifter is now a chiseled 6'1" 195lbs. I would not want to mess with this man among men. Hammer of Thor, behold Mr. Goggins.

Mike Morton- Don't let his small 5'4" frame fool you. Army Master Sergeant Morton is a Green Beret and former Navy diver. Pain is his pleasure, and his long military tenure puts him up with Goggins as possibly the toughest humans in ultrarunning, and on earth.

Alex Barth- An east coast speedster, this guy looks like he could rip the doors off a tank. He's also a skilled Tae Kwon Do black belt.

Doug Berlin- Known mostly to DC area runners, this 6'6" 230 bohemoth is the owner of three Gold's Gym franchises. From the looks of it, he works out at all three.

Aron Ralston- few people know that Aron is an ultramarathoner, and has completed the Leadville 100. Aside from that, anyone who can survive 127 hours in Blue John Canyon, break their arm, then proceed to cut it off, is a tough S.O.B. in any book.

Jenn Shelton- She may be tiny, but this wild child would do some damage. She's never turned down a challenge, and she's got the spunky personality to boot. Jenn's holding it down for the ladies.

(Credit:Luis Escobar)

Michael Dunlop: Known better in the Lynchburg area. Mike won the Mountain Masochist bench press contest with 39 reps of 135 lbs AFTER running 54 miles. At 6'8" 250 lbs, Dunlop is hard to miss.

The Moments

"It is always surprising how small a part of life is taken up by meaningful moments. Most often they are over before they start, although they cast a light on the future and make the people who originated them unforgettable."
-Anna and the King

My great grandmother, simply called Nanny, was 90 years old the last time I saw her some 20 years ago. In fact, I can still remember our first encounter when I was a small child visiting Long Island, New York many years passed. Nanny lived in a small, yet spotless and cozy room in the lower level of my grandparents house. The only thing I recall was a portrait of Jesus hanging on the wall and a set of rosary beads neatly set on her desk top. The back of Nanny's her hands were soft, yet aged liked a fine sheet of paper. Paper is an appropriate analogy given that her hands alone reflected the stories of a life well lived. Nanny's eyes also told a story of living through two world wars, a great depression, and the witnessing of several generations of children come and gone. Her voice was a little shaky, but no doubt from the many stories shared. 90 years of life, and yet just a small stitch in the fabric of time.

Meaningful moments are hard to come by these days, yet they often define and shape who we are as people, and also the threads that intertwine the myriad of human relationships we experience. It is no coincidence that the greatest experiences a person can have on earth are centered around the celebrations of life, and the duplicity within the loss and gain of it. There's always a harmony. A balance. But, such is the case with all things. We are born, we die, we love, and we hate. We are all things that fall in between the distant poles of the latter. It's what makes us....well, us. Life, and it's meaningful moments are like priceless works of art. Their limited duration and terms of borrowed use are what derive the value. How many more sunrises will you see? How many more times will you lie on your back and gaze upon the clouds? Imagine a white Christmas with family, a child with sparklers on the fourth of July, or celebrating a baby's first steps. How many of anything do we truly have left? We frequently perceive life as an inexhaustible well of moments. But, it is not.

I was born in the port city of Busan, South Korea. Nobody knew what the future held. My sister was born several years later. Her first cries echoed in the hospital corridors, thus beginning a story that we could try to predict, but would never really know until it was lived out. Lived out in a series of meaningful moments. Mere seconds after her birth my sister was embraced in the adoring arms of my mother and father, both beeming as they ushered her arrival into this life. Hand in hand, this was their first dance. It was a moment where time stood still just for a second, because this particular place in history belonged to my family.

The years go by, and like winds sweeping over a desolate sandy beach, they take their share of dreams and hopes. Life doesn't go as planned, loved ones depart, but, like the rolling tides, the years also give something back.

Flashforward 28 years and 2 months. My little sister is now adorned in all white as she is about to walk down the aisle to meet her future husband. She is radiant only like a bride can be, or like a newborn person. Though the setting is a little different, it is a mirror image to her birth, but this time her it is her second life that she is about to embark on. Instead of receiving her, my parents are about to give her away in marriage. My father's hand is a little older, and his hair a bit grayer, but he holds my sisters hand again for the first time, and my mother looks on with the same adoration as 28 years before. The sun shines through the chapel stained glass, and it is truly one of the most beautiful moments I have, or will ever experience. We always knew this day would come, but when the day arrives you still find yourself saying "Is this day really here?" The moment takes your breath away because you've pictured it a thousand times in your mind, and yet no amount of imagination can prepare you for the real thing. When my sister walked the aisle, I saw all of our moments together. I saw my little curly haired sister running through the fields, playing piano, getting her license, and graduating from college. While everyone else saw one moment, my family witnessed them all.

...and yet, even the monumental nature of my sister's wedding ceremony was merely a one hour moment in our lives. Ask a person who, like my great grandmother, has lived say 70, 90, or even over 100 years. Even the oldest people on earth have lives that were most impacted by single events that lasted shortest amount of time. A birth, a death, an illness, a car crash, a wedding, a promotion, a family. One moment you are giving a best man toast, and the next you are making a funeral speach. From split seconds to decades, it is the accumilation of these individual moments that make up this thing called life. Moments reflect the past and cast a light on the future. We are all meaningful moments waiting to happen.

Let the father and daughter dance. In this moment.

The Future of Course Records

Last year I wrote about the most impressive US ultramarathon course records, and now I think we may see all of them fall in the next several years. In fact, I believe by 2017, if not sooner, all the major course records will be broken.

In today's ultra scene we are seeing more and more fast marathon runners crossing over to the ultra world. Most of this is due to their desire for a change of scenery, a new challenge, but also because running a 2:12 marathon will no longer win you marathons. However, when most fast marathoners "figure out" out how to adapt to the ultramrathon distance, it would seem likely that all the hallowed records will fall. Afterall, a sub 2:20 marathoner won't win any marathons these days, but they likely have more than enough speed to win ultras, and win the money and endorsements that could come with it.

Fast marathon times obviously don't always correlate to ultramarathon success, and is even less likely to promote success at extremely technical ultras, like the Massanutten Trails 100. To some degree, the best long distance technical specialists, like Karl Meltzer, should continue to dominate races of extreme geographic nature (Hardrock etc.). Case in point, Timothy Olson, in ideal conditions, destroyed the course record at Western States, and he's by far not the fastest guy to run. However, grinding for 100 miles requires a different skill set than raw speed. Thus, I believe most 100 mile course records are likely very safe from the super fast marathoners, but for 100k and shorter, records will drop like they are hot. That doesn't mean 100 mile course records won't continue to fall, I think they will, but by the increasing number of elite ultrarunners competing, and not due to the marathon speedsters.

However, for all the non technical ultramarathons out there we are seeing the fast crossover marathoners finally starting to get the hang of ultras. Last weekend Sage Canaday, who I think is at the beginning of a dominant stretch of ultrarunning, took down Tony Krupicka's stout course record at White River. It was his first 50 miler, longest run ever, never saw the course before, and ran a ridiculous 6:16. Tony was in his peek, had Uli Steidl's splits, and ran the course twice before getting to his 6:25 time. Even in smaller events, like West Virginia's Capon Valley 50k, fast road guys are coming in to clean house. Andy Allstadt, a 2:22 marathoner, won Capon Valley with a time of 3:52 in his first ultra. He beat out the talented local ultra stud, my friend Brad Hinton, by 22 minutes, and he even got lost on the course. Imagine what he might do next year if he runs the same race? Previously, people thought sub 4 hours was blazing at Capon Valley, but clearly a Max King, or Sage Canaday could run sub 3:30.

The number of guys who can run in the 2:20's and lower is growing my leaps and bounds. Max King, Sage, Jordan McDougal, Khalib Wilkinson, Matt Woods, Michael Wardian...so on. Even the women are out there running 2:39, like Devon Crosby Helms, and 2:40's like Ellie Greenwood, Jenn Shelton, and Leah Thorvilson. Look out ultra world, course records are gonna get turned upside down. The last time super fast marathoners dedicated themselves to training for ultras we got Matt Carpenter, Uli Steidl, and Michael Wardian. Even Josh Cox got in a little ultra action with his 50k American Record.

So where do I predict course records will go in the next few years?

Western States- Sub 14:30, though the weather is a huge factor(snow and heat)

Hardrock- Sub 22:30. Eventually a high altitude runner, other than Kyle Skaggs, will figure this course out

Leadville- Sub 15:30. I think this will be the last CR to fall given Matt Carpenter was in his prime, and was virtually unbeatable at altitude when he set his CR of 15:45

Vermont: Sub 14 hours.

Umstead: sub 12:45.

Rocky Raccoon: sub 12:30, though Ian Sharman made this a beast to beat

American River: sub 5:20. Fast guy on a cool day could do it

Mountain Masochist: Sage could go sub 6:15 there

JFK 50: sub 5:30. Clifton's CR was like the 4 minute mile. Now people KNOW it can be broken

Badwater: sub 22 hours

Wasatch: sub 17:30

MMT: sub 17:30

Way Too Cool: sub 3:20

Caumsett Park 50k- sub 2:50

Big Bear Lake 12 Hour Trail Run

(Photo courtesy of Jason Griffith. Taken early in the day. Note the clean shirt)


July 21st, 2012. Bruceton Mills, WV

Flashback: I actually did this race back in 2008 and finished that year with 58.5 miles in 12:26.

Flash forward to 2012. This year it was a battle for 1st place all day between myself and another runner (Tom Rhine). The course is 6.5 mile loops of mostly hilly single track, and some technical trail. At 32.5 miles I trailed by 5 minutes, but I hit my only real low point of the day during my agonizingly slow 6th lap which put Tom's lead to over 20 minutes. My energy was super low, but after eating some beef jerky, the food of champions, I was back in the hunt. Tom continued to put a few minutes on me over the next couple loops, and then we ran the last two loops at nearly identical paces. In the end we tied for most distance, but Tom won the tie break by completing his miles faster. The next runners were well over an hour behind, so it really was a two man race for much of the event. However, to be fair, Rande Brown wasn't too far behind me and stopped with 8 laps so he could finish with his wife Kari who ran despite some knee issues. Rande just ran 22:11 at the MMT100, so no doubt he would have pushed me if he chose to keep running. All day I kept expecting Tom to come back to me, as long as I held a consistent pace, but he never slowed down. Props to him for proving me wrong.

(Photo courtesy of Jason Griffith. Dirty later in the race after a couple of spills)


Interesting note of integrity: Going into my 10th lap I trailed by 22 minutes, which was too big of a gap to overcome, so I told the time keepers that it was my final lap. Technically, within the rules, I was allowed to go out for an 11th lap because I had finished my 10th lap within the 12 hours. This would have put me at 71.5 miles to Tom's 65 for the win. Unlike most timed events, they let you keep going after time expires. Some runners were out there for 14 hours. Tom was in no shape to go out for an 11th loop, but in good faith stopped at 65 miles because he trusted I was not going back out (based on my word to the timekeepers). I could have very fairly won the race with an 11th lap, but it would have been pretty classless. I opted to maintain some character and settle for 2nd, knowing I could have literally stolen the win. What do yall think? A classy 2nd place, or a no holds barred win? To me, it wasn't worth being the "bad" guy in such a low key event with only 37 solo runners.

So far in 2012 things are holding steady. I think I am becoming a better long distance runner, since I'm not fast enough to hang with folks for 50k's and shorter events. In races over 50k in distance I have finished 5th, 4th, 2nd, and 2nd. Still searching for that elusive win in 2012.

Weather: 60's at the start. A few runners actually had on gloves and long sleeves. High temperature in the mid 70's, but very humid. Overcast. Ideal running conditions for July. A little muddy, but overall good trail conditions.

Splits:

26 miles- 4:12
32.5 miles- 5:17
52 miles- 9:11
58.5 miles- 10:33 (compared to 12:26 from '08)
65 miles- 11:49

Note: Funny, although an entirely different course and event altogether, these splits were almost exactly the same as my Old Dominion 100 splits. I guess if this had been another 100 mile race, I would have finished in about 20:30, which would have been the third 100 mile run in the 20:30 range this year. Thank goodness, it was "only" 65 miles ;-)

Old Dominion 100. Magic in the Moonlight

(Fort Valley, Virginia. Photo courtesy of Bobby Gill)

There are two races that truly define the heritage of 100 mile ultramarathons in the United States. One is California's famed Western States 100, and the other is the Old Dominion 100. The latter is a diamond in the rough, and I've been blessed to experience both. Over the last 39 years Western States has evolved from one man's challenge to conquer a horse trail by foot into a high tech, sponsor decorated, epic production. In nearly the opposite sense, the Old Dominion 100 has clung tightly to the vintage format that makes you feel like you are still racing in the 1980's. Both races are unique and invaluable to ultrarunning, and to run them is to understand the history of the sport we cherish. Race founder Pat Botts, and directors Ray and Wynne Waldron bring you a classic race, but can you survive 100 miles like ultrarunning's legends from the 1970's and 80's? That is the very challenge that brought 56 runners to the small town of Woodstock Virginia on June 2 ,2012. Welcome to the 34th running of the Old Dominion 100 Mile Cross Country run.

My Old Dominion 100 race entry was not mailed in time. Epic fail. Two days before the race I called the race staff to confirm I was not running. Much to my surprise, they said I was on the list, and I was cleared to go. A spur the moment 100 miler? I hadn't run over a 40 mile week since April, and now I had 48 hours to prep for 100 miles of running. Well, I didn't have any plans for the weekend and I love mountains and running. Sure, why not? I roll like that.




It's 4am on a cool, crisp June morning. You have 24 hours to run 100 miles. The night sky is bright, and the moon is nearly full. "Is there enough magic out there in the moonlight to make this dream come true?" Words spoken by Moonlight Graham's character in Field of Dreams. We pray, and then we go.

Today is all about embracing the experience of the run. No goals. Just be in the moment and enjoy it. It's better than sitting in my office with eyes glazed over by the glare of computer monitors and fluorescent lights. The early miles of the race contain the usual friendly banter when everyone's hopes and aspirations for the day are still alive and well. The fast guys dart off into the darkness, falling further into the distance, with their position only being given away by dimming flicker of the police escort vehicle lights.

I run up Woodstock mountain with West Virginia speedster Paul Davis, running his first 100, and we have a great time chatting to the top of the first climb of the day. The new day reveals itself as the sun transforms the navy blue sky into a blush horizon. The roads are fast, and the weather is about as pleasant as you could ask for. Though I run about the same in hot weather as I do cool weather, the mild temps were indeed welcome. I enjoyed the rolling roads and took note of the verdant surrounding landscapes of Fort Valley. I was mostly alone daydreaming, but was joined around mile 23ish by Matt Broaddus and Paul Jacobs, two fast guys from DC also running their first 100. Soon enough the guys were out of sight, and I mosied my way to Four Corners. 32.5 miles done, and a good bit slower than the last time I ran Old Dominion, despight the nice weather. No worries. I am having fun.

Goodbye roads, hello trails. The technical 15.2 mile stretch through Duncan Hollow, Peach Orchard, and back down Crisman Road went by like a blur. 2 hours and 37 minutes after I left Four Points, I was back. Carter Wiecking heads up a top notch aid station, and if I'm going to see any aid station twice, it might as well be hers. One special beverage later I am off and running again. 50 miles done. Steep ATV trail, check. Puddly Peter's Mill trail, check. Now time to visit some old friends at Little Fort. Lee and Deb Pugh give me a warm reception, and I am just as happy to return the favor. I don't stay long, but Little Fort always feels like a mini homecoming for me.

93 miles go left and 65 miles go right. Right it is. More roads, a mudhole, and then a furnace. My safety runner isn't there, and I'm a little bummed for him. I don't need a safety runner, but it would have been nice to share the experience with a friend. Oops. But, alas a girl named Jamie wants to run with me. Game on! The climb up Sherman was slow, but to be expected with over 75 miles now on the legs. Climbing Veach Gap is another tough grunt, but the views of moon rising over the valley were incredible. Descending into Veach west I rolled my ankle twice and walked the remainder of the trail into the aid station. The ankle roll was the only actual pain I had all day, and it was gone within minutes. I thanked Jamie for helping pace and not only was she awesome company, but she and her family have an incredibly rich relationship with the Old Dominion 100. Her father is none other than the legendary Ed Foley. Ed is a 15 time Old Dominion buckler and former champion. Basically, he is to Old Dominion what Tim Twietmeyer is to Western States. Good stuff my friends, good stuff.

The remainder of the run was cool, calm, and serene. The stillness of the valley night and the golden lights of the town below serve as open arms for the prodigal sons and daughters returning from their weary ventures. We retrace the footsteps of the day before, almost as if to rewind back to a place of rest and recovery. Then, just like it started, the race is over.

Thank you to all the amazing volunteers and their tireless efforts. Volunteering isn't just a race day job, it's also the months before and after that they bust their butts so you can finish. Thanks to Matt Broaddus for the leapfrogging company and comradery for 60 miles. Thanks to the Broaddus/Jacobs crew for adopting me as a runner, and being cheerful faces for me and others at all the crew stops. Thanks to Ray, Wynne, and Pat. Runners, it's up to us to get this race back on the map and allow it to have the recognition it deserves.

In regards to my feelings for the Old Dominion 100, I'll finish with another Moonlight Graham quote.

"This is my most special place in all the world. Once a place touches you like that, the wind never blows so cold again."

Run like you stole something (metaphorically),

Mike Bailey

Massanutten Mountain Trails 100 Preview and Odds

Drum roll please!

I proudly introduce to you the preview of the 2012 Massanutten Mountain Trails 100 miler, brought to you by the Virginia Happy Trails Running Club. Who's ready for unpredictable May weather, 16,200 feet of gnarley climbing, and over 100 miles of foot smashing rocks? Surely you will say "Massanutten Rocks!".

Without furthur adue, here are some folks to watch in the 2012 race. I will be updating runner info throughout the week, so stay tuned as more up to date news comes in. Though this list only highlights some of the faster runners in the field, remember that some of the most inspiring stories will come from the middle and back of the pack. Enjoy.


As always. Ladies first!

Eva Pastalkova- The reigning champ is back. Last year she took down Sue Johnston's stout course record with a time of 22:30. Now that she knows the course, she will be nearly unbeatable. Her mental strength is a huge asset, as long as she stays on course. I think she will lower the mark again. Prediction 22:09, new course record, and she finishes top 5 overall. The question is, how many guys will she chick, and could she be the first *FEMALE OVERALL WINNER of MMT*?

Sheryl Wheeler- The former champ is super tough, and she consistently finds a second gear during the late stages of MMT (usually after mile 75). She will pick her way towards the front of the race, and I think she'll duke it out with Cusick for 2nd. Prediction 26:12

Kathleen Cusick- I paced Kathleen last year, and I think she will be hungry for another top 3. I think she holds on for 2nd this year and edges out Wheeler with a time of 25:50

Frannie Conte- She's fast, but has never done particularly well on rocky trails. If she can gut it out, I think she could manage a finish in the 27 hour range. Predict 27:17




The Men's race: None of last year's top 3 are returning, but the field is still stacked. At least 5-6 guys are in a position for the win. We have a nice mix of fast young guys and "old" guys, east coasters, and west coasters. Three former champs are running. There will be a big cluster of folks betwwen 21:30 and 23 hours. Let the games begin!


Nick Pedatella- Possibly the fastest guy in the field and trains at altitude. DNF'ed MMT in '09 and will look for redemption. Predict 20:45

Jack Pilla- won Vermont in 2010 at age 51 in 16:36. He could destroy the 50+ age record, and contend for the win. 21:55 cuz he doesn't do rocks often.

Dan Barger- He won MMT in 2010 (20:25), so he knows how to run the course fast. At age 46, it's almost hard to believe he has been running ultras for nearly 30 years. He started when he was 17. Predict 21:40

Adam Lint- One of the fastest 50k and 50 mile guys in the field, and lesser known to us East coasters. He's fast, but has the least 100 mile experience of the other guys. Does he like rocks? Predict 22:30

Sean Andrish- Sean's lost some speed, but he's got experience. He won MMT in 2004, and can still fight for a top 5 position. I hope he proves he can still bring it for 100 miles. Predict 23:45

Harland Peelle- Hasn't raced as much recently, but he's still fast and experienced. Both are needed at MMT. Predict 23:10

Keith Knipling- What would MMT be without Keith in the mix. He had an "off" year last year, but I think he will bounce back into the top 5 where he belongs. Predict 22:25.

Todd Walker- 2008 MMT champ is back. Should be gunning for a top 3. Tons of MMT experience. Predict 21:50

Jason Lantz- If he is rested he should go top 5. Just ran 6:33 at Bull Run Run. He will duke it out for a top 3. I think he may be the sleeper to win if he stays on trail. Can run 21:30.

James Blandford- He has gone sub 24 before at MMT and just threw down a 6:59 at Bull Run Run. He's in shape and I think he's due for a big finish. Predict 22:55 and a top 10

Adam Cassaday- Has finished 3rd and 5th at MMT, and I'd expect more of the same. He can break 22 hours. Predict 22:42

Mike Frazier- Mike trains A LOT on the Massanutten trails, and he's pretty fast. I think he's got 23:30 in him and a top 12.

Chris Askew- He's a bit under the radar coming from Oregon, but he's also broken 24 hours at some very tough 100's. He was 6th at the 2010 MMT (23:04), and I think he'll go sub 24 again. 22:55 and a top 7

Yosuke Murase- Might be one of the most improved VHTRC runners in the last year. He will surprise folks. I think he will run 23 hours and round out the top 10.

....Others to watch


Richard Cook- He tears up road 100's and won the inaugural Oil Creek 100 a few years ago, so he can perform on trails. I just don't know about the rocks. He could still go sub 24, but I will predict 25:30 for the road runner.

Dave Ploskonka- Dave goes out fast, and sometimes holds on, sometimes doesn't. He's owned the Beast of Burden series and run 16:19 for a road 100, but the trails are different. Could easily go faster than my prediction, but I'll say 25 hours flat.

Dante Simone- little known, but recently ran 16:56 at the NJ 100. Definitely worthy of note.

Ryan O'dell- speedster from NY. Could break 24, but I'm thinking 24:30.

James Brennan- My buddy has knocked out solid finishes at Rocky Raccoon and Vermont 100. If he's been prepping for the rocks he could do well, but I'm not sure it's been his focus. He's got the talent for sub 24, but are his legs conditioned for the rocks? Predict 25:45 and top 15.

Jim Harris- Mr consistency could see a top 10. I'd like to see Jim break 24 hours. The question is whether he will taper, or run 30 miles the day before MMT. Predict 25:25

Ryan Henry- broke 24 hours at MMT back in '07. Not sure if he's running much these days. I think he's still got sub 26 and top 15 in him. Predict 26:20

Andy Anderson- not a contender, but my old friend is 0 for 6 in 100 mile attempts. I am rooting like crazy for my buddy to get his first finish. Lucky number seven.